lake powell water level forecast 2022

google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; The last couple months have steadied out a little bit, Cody Moser, a senior hydrologist with NOAA forecast center, said during a recent web briefing to review the most recent report. a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and Credit: Alex Hager. She grew up in Tucson, Arizona, where she fell in love with the ecology and geology of the Sonoran desert. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd@wateredco.orgor @jerd_smith. Mitchell declined to discuss the pending drought operations plan. Were an initiative of theCenter for Environmental Journalismat the University of Colorado Boulder. The May report, released last week, is the final runoff prediction for the season. The forecast estimated that the amount of water that will flow into Lake Powell this spring and summer will be about 59% of average, based on 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020. In the image acquired on May 1, 2004, the reservoirs northwestern branch is isolated from the main reservoir; the shallow water upstream could not crest raised areas in the lakebed. (2007). Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. Even in low emission climate scenarios (forecasts that are based on the assumption that future carbon dioxide emissions will increase relatively slowly), models predict precipitation may decline by 20-25 percent over most of California, southern Nevada, and Arizona by the end of this century. Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. water-data.com LakePowell Water Database . Becky Mitchell is director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the states lead water planning agency. At the beginning of water year 2023, total system storage in the Colorado River Basin was 19.54 maf (33 percent of 58.48 maf total system capacity). Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. Lukas noted that the dry soil conditions are factored into the NOAA runoff predictions from the get-go so there shouldnt necessarily be any big surprises with that particular variable. New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year. Its better than last year, but well just have to see what the next two to four weeks holds for precipitation.. The Upper Basin reservoirs have already provided 161,000 acre-feet of water pursuant to the imminent need provision of the Drought Response Operations Agreement, including 36,000 acre-feet from Blue Mesa Reservoir in Colorado. The most probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50 percent of the time. U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. Together with the release of more water into Lake Powell from an upstream dam, the decision will keep the lake at a level at which it can continue generating hydropower for the next 12 months. As of Wednesday, the water level was 3,524.22 feet. There is a 10 percent chance that inflows could be higher than the current maximum probable forecast and a 10 percent chance that inflows could be lower than the minimum probable forecast. As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. For five years after 2012, snow- and rainfall totals were generally low, as the region suffered through a persistent, long-term drought. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. The reduction of releases from Lake Powell from 7.48 maf to 7.00 maf in water year 2022 resulted in a reduced release volume of 0.480 maf that normally would have been released from Glen Canyon Dam to Lake Mead as part of the 7.48 maf annual release volume, consistent with operations under the 2007 Interim Guidelines. Snow levels will fall to the lowest locations Wednesday night into Thursday morning, before the storm exits eastern Arizona Thursday afternoon. Federal and state water managers have watched the water level in Lake Powell closely this year. Though the 2022 forecast isnt expected to be finalized until later this month, water officials expect that more water will have to be released from Upper Basin storage reservoirs this summer because inflows into the lake from the drought-stressed Colorado River are expected to be well below average again, in the 60% to 80% range. Hourly releases during February 2023 will fluctuate from a low of approximately 5,797 cfs during the early morning hours to a high of 10,091 cfs during the afternoon and evening hours. KNAU's Melissa Sevigny reports. This was the lowest water levels have been since the lake was first constructed in the 1930s. WEco is funded by multiple donors. To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. 0 Combined with water withdrawals that many believe are not sustainable, the drought has caused a dramatic drop in Lake Powells water level. The lake held just 30 percent of its capacity. Telling stories that matter in a dynamic, evolving state. The lake level began to rebound; only the 2008 image appeared to deviate from the trend toward rising water levels. Reclamation will continue to carefully monitor hydrologic and operational conditions and assess the need for additional responsive actions and/or changes to operations. //2006-10-04: news "We might get lucky with the weather, but the idea of the system recovering is really hard unless you reduce water use in that basin," Lund told Newsweek. Boats docked at Lake Powell on July 13 . The February forecast for water year 2023 ranges from a minimum probable of 8.37 maf (87 percent of average) to a January forecasted maximum probable of 14.93 maf (155 percent of average) with the most probable forecast for water year 2023 of 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). The modeling approach for WY 2023 will apply to 2024. He also was an associate editor at 5280 and a reporter for the Vail Daily. The Glen Canyon Dam annual release has initially been set to 7.00 maf, and in April 2023 Reclamation will evaluate hydrologic conditions to determine if balancing releases may be appropriate under the conditions established in the 2007 Interim Guidelines; Balancing releases will be limited (with a minimum of 7.00 maf) to protect Lake Powell from declining below elevation 3,525 feet at the end of December 2023; Balancing releases will take into account operational neutrality of the 0.480 maf that was retained in Lake Powell under the. After decades of drought, the water level in Lake Powell has sunk to unimaginable lows, threatening millions of people who rely on the water supply. On Tuesday, the lake fell below 3,525 feet above sea level, a key target elevation that water managers have been trying to keep Powell above because it provides a buffer from the minimum level at which Glen Canyon Dam can generate power. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. hb```)," View our Current Membership Thank You Gifts, KNAU News Talk - Arizona Public Radio | Lake Powell water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George News . Climate change also plays a part. "Its always good to plan for the worst, right? google_color_url = "426C95"; But a long-term drying trend began in the year 2000. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr@usbr.gov for additional information. Depending on the severity of the system emergency, the response from Glen Canyon Dam can be significant, within the full range of the operating capacity of the power plant for as long as is necessary to maintain balance in the transmission system. Printable Version Gas Prices on Lake Detailed Map of Powell 15 Day Weather Forecast Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. The Bureau of Reclamation announced on May 3, 2022, two separate urgent drought response actions that will help prop up Lake Powell by nearly 1 million acre-feet (maf) of water over the next 12 months (May 2022 through April 2023). Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section). "As a result of this update, the median water year 2022 inflow forecast into Lake Powell decreased by 800,000 acre-feet," USBR stated in a press release distributed Thursday. Among the dams on the Colorado is Arizona's Glen Canyon Dam, which creates Lake Powell. 2022, a day after Southern California delared a water . Based on the current forecast of 10.44 maf unregulated inflow for water year 2023, the February 24-Month Study projects Lake Powell elevation will end water year 2023 near 3555.45 feet with approximately 7.47 maf in storage (32 percent of capacity). By Leia Larsen. The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. The bureau also announced it would release an additional 500,000 acre-feet of water from Flaming Gorge reservoir in Wyoming to further raise the water level at Powell. The Water Desks mission isto increase the volume, depth and power of journalismconnected to Western water issues. Because the 2022 operations were designed to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell, Reclamation will implement Lower Elevation Balancing Tier operations in a way that continues to protect these critical elevations, or preserves the benefits of the 2022 operations to protect Lake Powell, in water year 2023. A visual history of the water level of each of our Lake Powell trips over the past three years. In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. Human actions created the Salton Sea, Californias largest lake heres Scientists studying water supply focus on weeks following peak snowpack. google_ad_width = 160; Close Become a member Login My Account Logout Search for:Search News Education Health Coloradans Equity Sun Investigation Crime and Courts Culture Sports She reported that, as of March 16, 2022, Lake Powell was at an elevation of 3,524.83 feet (ft.) with storage of 5.916 million acre-feet (maf) or 24 percent of capacity. From there, a swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell's main artery. endstream endobj 160 0 obj <>/Metadata 41 0 R/Pages 157 0 R/StructTreeRoot 59 0 R/Type/Catalog/ViewerPreferences 177 0 R>> endobj 161 0 obj <>/MediaBox[0 0 792 612]/Parent 157 0 R/Resources<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/StructParents 0/Tabs/S/Type/Page>> endobj 162 0 obj <>stream In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. google_color_text = "000000"; google_ad_width = 160; The sediment-filled Colorado River appeared green-brown. 15 Day Weather Forecast The reservoir's levels rise after consistent rain or snowpack melt in the area. To view the 2023 progession of snowpack above Lake Powell, click on Lake Powell Snow Chart. Lake Powell